Sunday, October 25, 2020

How to Steal An Election

The clip above is from my local congress critter, representing my little piece of Virginia on the outskirts of the capitol city of the most powerful country in the world. It’s a bit sobering to hear someone responsible for creating the laws governing this powerful government joking (I assume he’s joking) about how to disenfranchise voters and “cheat” the democratic process, but that’s the new norm that we find ourselves in.

That kind of leads me to the point of this post. For months now, like I think a lot of the kinds of people who will find and read this post, have been truly amazed at the how out there the body politic and the press have been about their lies and deception. We now have what appears to be an age addled former hack racist as the candidate to become the chief executive of the most powerful country of the world and the leader of the free world. I won’t even begin to talk about his socialist VP pick. The point is, I keep asking myself how do they expect for him to win against the guy who has and ushered in real peace in Mideast,  a thriving economy, and widespread economic stability (at least until the China Flu thing happened)?

The conclusion that I came to is the only way they can expect to win is to cheat. There just isn’t any other explanation. So, if we work on that premise, we must ask ourselves how exactly will they go about that? After all, you can only stuff ballot boxes so much. In most cases you hear about ballot stuffing, it involves less than a few thousand votes. That’s just not enough to result in the kind of hoodwink they need in the next few days. So, the 50-cent question here is how do they expect to do this?

Big G in the clip above gives us a clue. In a low turnout vote, they just need to make sure that it’s their people that show up. How can they systematically do that in such as way as to guarantee the results they want? The answer is of course, the COVID! If they can make it hard for republican districts to get to the polls, while at the same time make it easy for the democratic districts, then the net result will be a democratic win, all districts being about the same number of voters.

How will they go about doing that? Well, in Virginia they have instituted new rules for this upcoming election to protect us voters from the dreaded COVID. First, everyone in line must be 6 feet apart. Let’s do some math on that. The last time I voted in a presidential election, there were probably 100 people in the line at say 2 feet apart. That means that the line should have been about 300 feet long. So, if these restrictions are enforced, we are talking lines 900 feet long, or about the length of 2.5 football fields. If you have to park, walk to the end of the line, then inch your way to the polling door, we are talking anywhere between a quarter to a half mile. For healthy people, that’s not a big deal. For older folks (who tend to vote ‘R’), that’s a big problem. On top of that, they will be minimizing the number of people in the voting area, which will exasperate the wait time. Oh – and everyone will have to wear a mask. They haven’t said it yet, but my impression is no mask, no vote. Or no mask, go home and get one.. longer wait, longer delays, less voters, viola! Low turnout for the ‘R’ voters.

So your thinking, sure – it’ll be hard to vote all over.. so what are you worried about. Again, let’s go to the clip above.. they key here is low turnout with an emphasis on precincts that are ‘Rs. How can they make sure? Well, here in my little county, there is a committee that administers the election. Its ‘bipartisan’ but the majority is made up which ever party holds the governor’s mansion. If they were ensure that their precinct chiefs selectively enforced the new COVID rules, then that would go a long way towards providing the necessary slant. Additionally, in the name of helping the citizens vote, they could open additional voting locations. if those additional locations just happened to all be in democrat precincts, that would also provide the necessary slant.

But surely someone would notice this, right? Well, not necessarily. The polling captains would just be following the rules that they have been given. Each precinct operates on its own, and who’s to tell that the rules are being followed, and the delays are the same all over? Unless the campaigns are organized to ensure that they are watching for this, then it will get missed. I don’t get the impression that is case in my area, as the Trump campaign has not made Virginia a priority.

But you say, what about all those votes by mail or early voting going on now? Anecdotally, a few of my friends and acquaintances have done early voting, but the lines have been horrendous and wait times of 3-5 hours aren’t unheard of. The result is that this falls into a low turnout scenario, and the early voting just doesn’t matter.

I don’t think this is just a Prince William or even a Virginia thing. I think it’s a viable strategy that can (and probably is) being deployed across the country. The COVID ‘lockdowns’ and social distancing ‘rules’ which fly in the face of scientific norms seem to conveniently enable faultless voter suppression. Do we have the will to fight this? Are we willing to stand in line for hours to ensure that we are not low turnout? The Democrats seem to be thinking we won’t. Just watch the clip above again and tell me I’m not crazy.

Sunday, August 2, 2020

Whites Need Not Apply

I saw this on facebook...

So, a quick analysis indicates there is one ethnic group not represented here.. who need not apply? WickedPedia notes that in 2010, the population of DC was 38% white, 50% black, 9% Latino, and 3.5% Asian. So, no, this is not a "representative" recruiting poster. Oh for candidates being judged by the content of their character and not the color of their skin.. 

Wednesday, July 8, 2020

Thanks for making this easy

Names are powerful things. It doesn't really matter when you are first born and your parents lay some pretentious handle on you like Gertrude or Edward. What do you know about power then? You know if you cry someone will fix what is bothering you, be it a soiled diaper or a hunger pain. No, the power of a name comes along a bit later when you get used to answering to it and other people give you power by depending on you linking that name to real things, be it an enlistment contract with the Army, a marriage license, or a loan for a car or home.

For that reason changing a name is kinda a big deal. It says you are no longer that thing you were before but a new person. This is not a new concept. For centuries, when priest are ordained, they usually adopt a new name so they internalize the changed creature they have become. The old id is dead, the new has become something else. I guess that is really what the "cancel culture" is all about now really. Pulling down things, renaming them, so that all that past history can be forgotten and become emptiness. That leaves a mark.

Which brings me to my main point. While reading through the Instapundit this morning I saw where a certain local team will be known as the "Warriors". For the record, I had already decided to stop watching football when I heard Adrian Peterson had decided to bring back the kneeling disrespect to every veteran who had ever served. I felt better about this decision when I read where the NFL had decided to play a made up national anthem in place of the real one.  But the name change? That sealed the deal. The weight of all those old traditions and trappings of history are now cast on the wind and are gone. That good for some, sad for others.

Thus, in my mind, they are no longer playing football. They are doing something else which has no meaning for me. Professional football had a good run though.. 52 years of people cheering for teams they would never see in person just because they happened to represent your town. Now that's over. This name change is the end of the end and there really is no going back. So be it.

Do I have any right to object? Not really. I assume they are making these decisions based on their target market. I am just not in that demographic anymore. I wish them well, but I won't watch it.. just like I don't watch much of what passes for live entertainment anymore. I do appreciate them making this easy for me. Once again I will pursuing those things which I enjoy instead of plopping down in front of the TV on a Sunday afternoon or evening. That too can be a good thing. Life is all about change, but mostly about how we adapt to it. I hope that goes well for us.

Monday, July 6, 2020

An alternative look at the numbers

This article puts forth an interesting twist on the observations that I made earlier with something I hadn't considered.. namely:

What if the positive test for the China Flu is an expression of immunity?

From his article:
"So if we do a PCR corona test on an immune person, it is not a virus that is detected, but a small shattered part of the viral genome. The test comes back positive for as long as there are tiny shattered parts of the virus left"

This is a really interesting take because those "spikes" that are being seen in all the young people in TX, AZ, CA, FL that were being interpreted as "asymptomatic" carriers are actually indicators that those people have developed immunity to the virus and are killing its ability to spread. If true, we can and should dispense with lock downs and masks and resume our normal lives and the government can concentrate on protecting the aged and infirm until the virus fades into the woodwork.

Friday, July 3, 2020

I'm sure they are all legal

I saw this on Facebook:

9.5 million people from "around the world" are registered to vote in the US election? Gosh, I hope they are all citizens! No fraud here!

Just Numbers

Greetings any wondering blog readers.. This is my first post after a long hiatus.. no promises but i'll be doing post as often as the spirit hits me.. there's just too much going on in the world, and sometimes I need to vent what i'm feeling. So, yeah, my post here are about me, so proceed with caution..

Today's inspiration is about this article about China Virus in the prison system. I know, by definition people in prison are bad men (and women). But, as humans, they too deserve some dignity and, unless they are sentenced to death, do not deserve to die there. But this post is not about that.. no it's about numbers. Numbers which are easily calculated which the author of this article failed to do in lieu of a click grabbing headline.

Let me start out this with some basic math. Say Johnny has  barrel of 100 apples. Why is he keeping his apples in a barrel? I'm guessing they all did something to deserve to be in that barrel, like knifing other apples, selling flavor enhancing drugs to other apples, or general thuggery. Like most of God's creations, they are mostly good apples who did bad things. However, there are a few of them that, when tested, may have a disease that may result in them rotting and dying. Let's say there are 10 of them in this barrel that have tested positive. That means:

               10 bad apples / 100 good apples = 10% possible bad apples

Note in the above I say "possible". That's because in this scenario, the test used to determine that they are bad actually just test for pieces of the virus that just happens to be the same pieces of some viruses that are benign and don't cause horrific death so if the same test were run against Sally's barrel from the same orchard, the test might have said she had no infection. In fact, in a barrel completely filled actual dead and rotting bad apples, there a chance that there a significant portion which the test will indicate they are negative, despite their actual dying and rotting appearance. To know if they actually have the virus a real doctor would have to look at them and say they had it. Whoops! I've strayed from talking about basic math and delved into the fallacies of using a statistical assay method (PCR) for diagnosing diseases. My apologies.

Now that we understand the basic math, lets look at the calculations the author should have done for the noted article. First lets pull some actual "facts" from the article (*note "facts" are in quotes because the basic assumption that a positive test means the prisoner has the China Flu is flawed).

  1. There are 1.5 million prisoners in the prison system (1,500,000)
  2. the number of cases (*) of prisoners who have the China Flu will soon hit 50,000
  3. the number of recovered cases (*) is 27,715
  4. the number of prisoners who have died from the China Flu  (*) is 585
Ok - let's do some math.. taking the numbers from the above we have:

            50,000 cases / 1,500,000 = 3.33%

Even though that means 96.6% of the prisoners have no chance of getting sick, still that's not great. Of course if I had a 96.6% chance of hitting red every time at the casino roulette wheel, I would bet on red every time and all the casino's money would soon be mine! However, we are not talking money here (or maybe we are, but that sinister idea would put me in crazy land so i'm not going to go there.. yet), but human life. So let's talk about how this effects those very real human lives.

Let's look at item 3 instead and do the math on that:

           27,715 got sick an recovered / 1,500,000 = 1.84%

Because item 3 represents prisoners who recovered from the China Flu (assuming they were sick, then were tested for the antibodies which actually proves they had it.. a big assumption) well that's a better number. That means 98.15% of the prison population is safe from this. Well except for the 585 dead. Let's do the math on that:

          585 deaths / 1,500,000 = 0.039%

I don't have any experience with the prison system, but I am thinking that with this low percentage, an inmate has a better chance of slipping on a bar of soap in the shower and dying from the head injury than dying from the China Flu. In fact, i'd guess that the China Flu is probably the least deadly thing in the prison, which admittedly is a shamefully deadly place. Note that this assumes that these deaths are directly attributable to the China Flu and not incidental to some other illness that caused the death (like shivs, choking, or gang rape). Actually, given the poor nutritional content of most prisoners diet, it's very likely that these prisoners were in bad health or compromised in some other way.

One final Math thing before I sign off here:

          50,000 cases - 27,715 recovered = 22,285 somethings

See, as I understand it, the prison system is real good about counting the people they have. I mean they are constantly counting them.. in their cells every night, in and out of the exercise areas, before and after every meal, lots and lots of counting. So the question is, what happened to the 22,285 prisoners who tested positive but didn't get sick and recovered? If they had escaped, I'm sure I we would have heard about it. I guess a certain small part of them could have been released before they developed symptoms, but how irresponsible would it have been for the prison system to release known infected inmates into the general public?

I will assume that isn't happening. Instead, let's do some happy math:

          22,285 tested positive but didn't get sick / 50,000 positive test = 44% asymptomatic

Asymptomatic means your snot has pieces of something that may look like the virus, but it doesn't make you sick. That number is frightening large, but if test are only administered to people that may be sick (again 3.33% of the overall population), then its good news that almost half of them don't have something that might develop into something that might, in a very few people, result in death.

But these are just numbers.. If this is what is happening in an environment where people have to live, eat, and poop in very close proximity to their fellow man (or woman), perhaps those of us who occasionally pass a neighbor in a grocery aisle or on a mountain bike trail can take a deep breath and know it'll actually be ok.. i'm looking at you stupid governors who are closing parks for the 4th of July! Be Safe!